UK & EU Climate News

• According to analysis from the Energy Crisis Commission, the UK is at risk of experiencing a repeat of the sharp increase in energy costs due to its reliance on gas. The Commission, which is made up of representatives including Energy UK, Citizens Advice, and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), reviewed the impacts of the 2021-2022 energy crisis and has made a series of recommendations focused on ensuring the UK is better equipped to withstand possibles future crises. The Commissions writes that, at present, the country is still “dangerously unprepared” for another crisis as it continues to use gas for its power plants and home heating.

• Despite pressure from the car industry to dilute the incoming rules, the European Union is set to stick to its controversial plans to ban the sale of new petrol-driven cars from 2035. The EU’s climate chief, Wopke Hoekstra, will face parliamentary hearings next month to defend the law and will reportedly not back down on the ban. European car manufacturers are concerned about the ban as they struggle with flagging electric vehicle sales and intense competition from Chinese manufacturers.

• A BBC article published on the 15th of October revealed that nearly half of the rubbish produced in UK homes is now being incinerated, which could have disastrous impacts on the climate. The BBC examined five years of data from across the country and found that burning waste produces the same amount of greenhouse gases for each unit of energy as coal power, which was abandoned by the UK last month. The use of incinerators spiked when the government hiked the taxes paid by Councils to send waste to landfill 15 years ago – in the past five years the number of incinerators in the UK has risen from 38 to 52.

• England has faced its second worst harvest on record for cereal crops and rapeseed due to record rainfall last winter, according to analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The overall harvest of these key crops fell 15% on the previous year and was 18% below the average for the past five years. An assessment by the World Weather Attribution service earlier this year found that climate change made storm rainfall during the period 20% heavier. These poor weather conditions hit the rapidly developing UK wine industry particularly hard, with producers reporting that harvests are down by between 33% -75%. With the effects of climate change on the agricultural industry only expected to worsen in the coming years, there are growing concerns about the UK’s food security.

UK: What does the newly announced budget mean for the climate?

Despite mixed views, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ Autumn budget contained various measures which, if followed through on, will have many positive effects on the climate.

The Budget contains a number of commitments to support the rollout of electric vehicles, in line with the government’s target of ending the sale of pure petrol and diesel cars by 2030. These included tax incentives to encourage people to purchase electric vehicles and investing over £200m in 2025-26 to accelerate the rollout of electric vehicles charging points. However, the Chancellor also extended a 14-year freeze in fuel-duty paid by motorists on petrol and diesel.

Measures in the budget supporting clean energy and net-zero include funding for investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear, and green hydrogen made with renewable electricity.

The budget also confirms an increase in the windfall tax on oil and gas companies. The energy profits levy (EPL) will rise by three percentage points to 38% from 1 November 2024. 

Additionally, the budget includes a number of other announcements relating to climate and energy. One such measure is £3.4bn in investment towards a “warm homes plan” for heat decarbonisation and household energy efficiency over the next three years. The budget also confirmed £5bn over two years to support a “more productive and environmentally sustainable agricultural sector in England” and more than £400m for tree-planting and peatland restoration.

Catastrophic floods in Spain leave over 200 dead.

Spain was struck by the worst floods in recent memory that submerged towns, toppled bridges and cut entire communities off from the outside world. The deadly floods left cars piled up like toys in streets, swallowed homes, and covered entire neighbourhoods in debris and sludge. Thousands of people are still facing power and water cuts and shortages of basic goods.

The disaster started early last week, when an unusual weather pattern known locally as “gota fría” or “cold drop” hit the eastern coast of Spain. It occurs when a cold air mass interacts with warmer, moisture-laden Mediterranean air, triggering heavy rainfall over a concentrated area.

Spain’s national weather service said it rained more in eight hours in the Valencian town of Chiva than it had in the preceding 20 months.

Unusually warm Mediterranean temperatures amplified the rainfall, a direct result of climate change. Warmer air holds more moisture, so higher temperatures have been known to exacerbate rainfall and related events around the world.

Analysis by scientists at World Weather Attribution found that the climate crisis made Spain’s rainfall about 12% heavier and doubled the likelihood of a storm as intense as this week’s deluge in Valencia. These deadly floods are yet another reminder of how dangerous climate change has already become at just 1.3C of warming.

EU Cuts Greenhouse Gas Emissions by More than 8% in 2023

According to a recent European Commission report, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the EU dropped by 8.3% in 2023. This represents one of the largest reductions in recent decades, aside from a 9.8% decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which was followed by a 4.8% rebound in 2021. This latest reduction also marks a notable jump from the 3% decline recorded in 2022.

The report highlights some major milestones, including a significant 24% decrease in emissions from electricity generation and heating over the past year. This shift has largely been attributed to a surge in renewable electricity—particularly from wind and solar sources—and an ongoing transition from coal to gas. Renewable energy has now become the primary source of electricity in the EU, contributing nearly 45% of total electricity production. Additionally, fossil-fuel-based electricity generation dropped by almost 20% in 2023 compared to the previous year.

In 2021, the EU enacted the European Climate Law, officially committing to the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. This law is a cornerstone of the European Green Deal, the EU’s strategy to create a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy. Alongside the 2050 target, the law also established a legally binding aim to reduce GHG emissions by 55% by 2030 from 1990 levels. To support this, the EU introduced a comprehensive set of "Fit-for-55" measures designed to address emissions in high-carbon sectors, including the expansion and tightening of the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which prices carbon emissions in key sectors.

The report shows that net GHG emissions in the EU have now fallen by 37% from 1990 levels, while GDP has grown by 68% over the same period, indicating progress toward the 55% reduction target for 2030. Among key sectors, the report notes that emissions from power and industrial sites under the EU ETS decreased by a record 16.5% in 2023. Emissions from buildings dropped by 5.5%, agricultural emissions by 2%, and transport emissions by less than 1%, while aviation emissions rose by 9.5%.

Global Climate News

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of Global Water Resources report published on the 7th of October found that 2023 was the driest year in more than three decades for the world’s rivers. The WMO says half the world faced dry river flow conditions last year. The report said the southern United States, Central America and South American countries Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Uruguay faced widespread drought conditions and the lowest water levels ever observed in the Amazon and in Lake Titicaca, on the border between Peru and Bolivia. The Mississippi River basin also experienced record-low water levels. Whilst 2023 was the hottest year on record, the report also cited the transition from La Niña to El Niño in mid-2023 as a cause of the extremes.

• The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) published their annual Living Planet report on the 10th of October, which revealed the alarming state of global biodiversity. It states that wildlife populations have fallen by a catastrophic rate of 73% on average over the past 50 years. The world’s freshwater populations globally fell by an average of 85%, while terrestrial populations by 69% and marine populations by 56% between 1970 and 2020. The report speaks on human-induced wildlife loss, including that 60% of the world’s Amazon pink river dolphins have been wiped out. However, it also shares some stories of hope, such as the 3% increase in the population of mountain gorillas in the Virunga Mountains of East Africa.

• The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C is “virtually zero” on current trends, and the opportunity will disappear within a few years without rapid action. UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap report warns that greenhouse gas emissions were the highest ever recorded in 2023. As such the world is on course for a catastrophic temperature rise of more than 3C above pre-industrial levels. The report also found that greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023 worldwide, to a new high of 57bn tonnes of CO2. To stay below 2°C of warming, global emissions would need to fall by around 28% between now and 2030, and by about 43% to stay at 1.5C, requiring a rapid transition of the global energy system.

• The WMO’s new bulletin has revealed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere hit record levels in 2023. Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time in human history, with concentrations rising by more than 10% in the last two decades. The WMO have attributed the increase to unyielding fossil fuel use as well as large wildfires and a possible drop in the ability of trees to absorb carbon. The WMO says the last time the Earth experienced a comparable CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 3-5m years ago, and that at this time, average temperatures were 2-3°C warmer than they are now, and sea levels were 10-20m higher.

• According to the latest update to the official extinction red list, the number of threatened trees now outweighs all birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians in the same category put together, with more than a third of tree species facing extinction. The news was announced at the COP16 UN biodiversity summit, which took place in Cali, Colombia in October. The tree assessment includes more than 80% of known tree species, with 38% found to be at risk.

Renewables set to meet half of global electricity demand by 2030, with China leading the way on investment.

A new International Energy Agency (IEA) ‘Renewables 2024 Analysis and forecast to 2030’ has found that renewable energy is set to meet nearly half of all electricity demand by the end of the decade, but to fall short of a UN goal to triple capacity to reduce carbon emissions. The world is set to add more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity between now and 2030, almost three times the increase between 2017 and 2023, according to report. This increase is equivalent to the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the US combined, yet still not enough to meet a target set at the COP28 UN climate conference.

For the world to triple capacity, governments need to intensify efforts to integrate renewables into power grids. The IEA has said that his requires the building and modernising of 25 million kilometres of electricity grids and reaching 1,500GW of storage capacity by 2030.

The report also notes that China is set to account for 60% of the expansion in global renewables capacity between now and 2030. 2024 marked a record-breaking year for Chinese investment into renewables. The country invested 220bn yuan ($31bn) and launched 37 major hydropower projects in 2024. The Ministry of Water Resources says that the projects could improve flood control capabilities in river basins and ensure food safety. Additionally, China has nearly 100 carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) projects in operation or under construction, with a combined annual carbon capture capacity of 4 million tonnes.

Data shows global heating makes hurricanes like Helene twice as likely.

New analysis published on the 9th of October has found that the record-hot temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico caused by human-caused global warming made Hurricane Helene “200 to 500 times more likely”. The analysis found that climate change increased the amount of rainfall from Helene by 10%, as well as its winds by about 13mph, making them “11% more intense”. Helene was one of the deadliest storms in US history, “crashing ashore” with 140mph winds and killing at least 220 people across six states.

According to the analysis, storms such as Helene, which were once expected to occur every 130 years, are now likely every 53 years, about 2.5 times more frequently.

The study came as millions of people were ordered to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton making landfall in Florida.

New research

• Global sea level rose by 10.1cm between 1993 and 2023, according to new research. Using three decades of continuous sea surface measurements from satellites, the authors find that the rate of global mean sea level rise has increased from around 0.21cm per year to around 0.45cm per year over this time period. They add that if this trajectory of sea level rise continues over the next three decades, sea levels will increase by an additional 16.9cm globally, comparable to “mid-range sea level projections” from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPPC) latest assessment report.

• Carbon dioxide emissions released from forest fires have increased by 60% around the world since 2001, according to a new study. Emissions from fires in the northern boreal forest, which stretches across Russia and North America, have seen a particularly significant uptick – tripling over the past 20 years. Warmer weather and faster-growing forests, which provide more material to burn, are the two main contributors, and both are attributable to global warming, which is happening at a faster rate in northern regions. Wildfires also threaten international climate targets; reforestation and afforestation schemes are being used to remove emissions from the atmosphere, often in an attempt to offset hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation and certain industries. The success of these schemes relies on carbon being stored in forests permanently, and wildfires threaten that.

• The latest annual update of the Lancet medical journal’s “Countdown on health and climate change” was published on the 29th of October and provided bleak picture of the effects of climate change on health. Of the 15 health impacts considered in the annual ­report, ten are more severe than ever before. According to the report, the record temperatures of 2023 meant that the average person experienced 50 more days of dangerous temperatures than they would have without climate change. However, one positive outlined in the report was that between 2016 and 2021, the number of people killed by air pollution from fossil fuels reduced by almost 7%, largely thanks to the progressive closure of coal-fired power stations.

• A 1% increase in Amazon deforestation is linked to a 6% increase in malaria cases one month later, according to a new study. The authors developed a statistical model of deforestation and malaria using municipal, monthly data on deforestation and malaria cases over 2003-22. They found that the impact of deforestation on malaria cases increased four-fold for every 1% increase in forest coverage within a given region, although they add that the impact of deforestation on malaria transmission varies across states.

• The presence of permafrost almost halves riverbank erosion rates in an Arctic river, according to a new study. Riverbank erosion can release deeply stored carbon and jeopardise Arctic infrastructure and communities, the researchers write. Using high-frequency satellite observations, they find that permafrost – ground that has been frozen for at least two years – reduces erosion rates by 47% on the Koyukuk River in central Alaska. Using modelling, they also find that “full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30-100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers”.