UK & EU Climate News

• The European Union’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 8% in 2023, according to the European Environment Agency (EEA). The report states that the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions were now 37% below their levels in 1990. However, it adds that the EEA found there was still a gap to close for the EU to meet its target of cutting emissions 55% by 2030. Current policies from member states are expected to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 from their 1990 levels. Planned measures that have not yet been rolled out would bring this up to 49% – still leaving a gap of 6%. The biggest drop in pollution last year came from the energy sector, the EEA found, as a result of the rapid rollout of renewable energy, which has accelerated the shift away from fossil fuels. Significant reductions were observed in the building sector and from industrial emissions, whilst progress in other sectors, such as transport and farming, was well below the levels needed to hit net zero emissions by 2050.

• UK prime minister Keir Starmer used his appearance at COP29 to confirm the nation’s new pledge to cut its emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. The UK’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is based on the recommendation from the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), on what sort of reduction was needed to help limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Starmer assures the people of the UK that they will not have to alter their behaviour to meet the new target, whilst the Conservative party claim that the pledge “means more hardship” for people.

• Spain’s left-wing government has approved a policy of “paid climate leave” – of up to four days – for people who need to avoid travelling during weather emergencies. The policy was trialled in areas affected by the flooding that killed more than 200 people in the Valencia region and it will now be rolled out nationwide. The leave, which is based on similar legislation in Canada, will be based on alerts about climate or meteorological disasters from authorities. The policy comes after several companies came under fire after the recent flooding which began on the 29th of October for ordering employees to keep working despite a red alert issued by the national weather agency.

• On the 28th of November 2024, the Belgian Parliament adopted in plenary meeting a law implementing the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). The implementation occurred without significant gold plating against the CSRD provisions and provides for additional flexibility with some options of the CSRD being exercised (such as the possibility to omit information relating to impending developments or matters during negotiation). The law now needs to be published in the Belgian State Gazette after which it officially enters into force.

Spain hit by deadliest floods in decades

Over a year’s worth of rain fell on several areas in eastern Spain, including Valencia, resulting in flooding which caused the deaths of over 200 people. It is one of the deadliest natural disasters in Spanish history.

Many citizens felt that the response from the Spanish and local governments was inadequate; Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was evacuated from Spain’s flood disaster zone following the event as locals pelted mud at political leaders and the Spanish King over a string of failures that they felt had left them helplessly exposed to a deadly deluge.

According to analysis from the World Weather Attribution, climate change made the intense rainfall about 12% heavier and twice as likely. However, whilst climate change may be the cause, many have argued that the region was woefully ill-prepared for an event such as this. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officials have stressed that effective flood warning systems could help avoid the level of destruction that has occurred in Valencia.

NESO publishes advice to government on pathways to clean power

On the 5th of November 2024, the new National Energy System Operator's (NESO) published its Clean Power 2030 report, setting out how to achieve clean power by 2030 (CP30). NESO defines clean power as when “clean sources produce at least as much power as Great Britain consumes in total and unabated gas should provide less than 5% of Great Britain's generation in a typical weather year".

The report sets out two possible pathways for reaching CP30: (1) Further Flex and Renewables, which envisages 50GW of offshore wind (OSW) and no new dispatchable plants; and (2) New Dispatch, which contemplates 43GW of OSW and new, clean dispatchable plants up to 2.7GW using low-carbon hydrogen or power CCS. Both pathways are predicated on increased electrification of heat, transport and industry across Great Britain.

Ongoing planning reforms as well as grid connection reforms are acknowledged in the report as critical enablers to achieve CP30. In addition, clarity for investors in future, reformed electricity market arrangements and investment support schemes will be crucial to mobilising the £40 billion investment needed each year in energy infrastructure to deliver CP30.

The government will review the pathways set out in the report and will publish its own Clean Power Action Plan, which is expected towards the end of the year.

Global Climate News

• It is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the world’s warmest on record, according to projections by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. The article notes that the year has been “punctuated by intense heatwaves and deadly storms”. It says the high temperatures are primarily due to human-caused climate change, with smaller contributions from natural effects such as the El Niño weather pattern. Another study adds that 2024 is also “almost certain” to become the first year on record when average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This year is expected to be more than 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average.

• A new report from thinktank Carbon Tracker finds that progress on reducing emissions in the fossil-fuel sector has “stalled” from 2023 to 2024. The report assessed the 30 largest oil and gas producers and found that no companies have Paris-aligned emission targets. The report observed “little meaningful change in overarching GHG goals from 2023 to 2024 – despite several target updates by companies such as Shell”. European oil and gas producers generally continue to lead in emission reduction action.

• The 2024 G20 Rio de Janeiro summit was held from the 18th to the 19th of November and a key outcome was the launch of the new UK-led Global Clean Power Alliance. The alliance has been created to unite countries across the Global North and South in speeding up the global clean energy transition, with secondary benefits of boosting the UK economy and increasing energy security. A set of ‘missions’ have been developed which will direct member countries to address critical energy challenges. 

Outcomes of COP29 – are the measures set out enough to combat climate change?

With global temperatures potentially breaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year, COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, arrived at a pivotal moment in the fight against climate change. Delegates from nearly 200 nations gathered to make progress on scaling climate finance, reducing fossil fuel usage, and operationalizing key aspects of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Azerbaijan faced accusations of conflict of interest and malpractice throughout the event. In his opening address, the President of Azerbaijan referred to oil and gas as a “gift of god”, criticising “Western fake news” about the country’s emissions and saying that nations “should not be blamed” for having fossil fuel reserves. The country also plans to expand gas production by up to a third over the next decade. These remarks foreshadowed the difficulties in progressing on a fossil fuel phase out throughout the conference. While stronger language around the transition from fossil fuels made its way into draft texts, the final text was little changed from that agreed upon at COP28 in Dubai.

They did manage to find agreement on the remaining sections of Article 6 on carbon markets, meaning all elements of the Paris Agreement have been finalised nearly 10 years after it was signed.

COP29 also marked another win for transparency, with enhanced reporting requirements for emissions, climate finance, and adaptation progress. Several nations submitted their first Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), offering detailed insights into their emissions trajectories and efforts to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are country-specific commitments under the Paris Agreement for emissions reductions.

The conference concluded on the 24th of November with an agreement calling on developed countries to deliver $300 billion per year to developing countries by 2035 to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect lives and livelihoods from the worsening impacts of climate change. Despite this, many developing countries were hoping for a more ambitious deal.

CO16 biodiversity summit

The two-week CO16 biodiversity summit in Colombia reportedly ended in disarray on the 3rd of November, with some breakthroughs but key issues left unresolved. Governments failed to reach a consensus on crucial issues such as nature funding and how this decade’s targets would be monitored.

Discussions ran on 12 hours longer than expected; many were forced to leave the talks early to catch flights, and negotiations were suspended at 8.30am when fewer than half of the countries were present. Countries will need to continue the talks next year at an interim meeting in Bangkok.

Many countries expressed fury at the way the talks had been dragged out and the order of discussions, which left crucial issues undecided at the final hour.

Trump’s second Presidency is bad news for the climate

Analysis from Carbon Brief published in March 2024 found that a Trump victory could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden’s plans. This is enough to negate – twice over – all the emissions savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years.

The Trump campaign said that the incoming president would withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, as Trump did during his first term as president. Last time, the US was only out of the Paris Agreement for a few months, but now Trump would only have to wait a year to leave, giving him three years to chart his own course without any need to report to the UN or be bound by its rules.

However, some experts say that a second Trump administration will not be able to stop the US’ transition to low-carbon energy, due to the rapidly falling cost of these technologies.

There is also speculation around the possibility of Trump breaking up key departments such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). California’s clean air rules, including a ban on new fossil fuel-powered car sales by 2035, are also potentially under threat because they have not been approved by the Biden administration and now face outright rejection by the incoming Trump administration.

Investors who were running bets against renewable energy stocks have racked up profits of more than $1.2bn from the heavy sell-off that swept the sector in the wake of Trump’s victory.

Shortly after his win, Trump picked oil and gas industry executive Chris Wright to lead the US Department of Energy. Wright is the founder and CEO of Liberty Energy, an oilfield services firm based in Denver. He is expected to support Trump’s plan to maximise production of oil and gas and to seek ways to boost generation of electricity, demand for which is rising for the first time in decades.

Wright also made a media splash in 2019 when he drank fracking fluid on camera to demonstrate that it was not dangerous. Additionally, in a LinkedIn video last year, Wright said: “There is no climate crisis…the only thing resembling a crisis with respect to climate change is the regressive, opportunity-squelching policies justified in the name of climate change.” 

Shell wins appeal against court ruling requiring it to slash emissions from use of products

A Dutch appeals court issued a ruling in Shell’s favour, reversing a landmark 2021 ruling holding the company responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from its customers’ use of its products, and ordering the company to dramatically reduce emissions by the end of the decade.

In its 2021 ruling, the court ordered Shell to slash emissions by 45% by 2030, on a 2019 basis, encompassing its Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions, which would include those resulting from the use of its products by customers.

In its more recent ruling the court acknowledged that “fossil fuel consumption is largely responsible for creating the climate problem and that addressing climate change is something that cannot wait,” adding that “companies like Shell, which contribute significantly to the climate problem and have it within their power to contribute to combating it, have an obligation to limit CO2 emissions in order to counter dangerous climate change.”

Despite noting Shell’s obligation to cut emissions, however, the court found that sufficient scientific evidence does not currently exist to support a specific emissions reduction requirement such as the 45% ruling.

New Research

• The climatic conditions that helped drive the extreme wildfire season seen in south-west France in June 2022 were made twice as likely by human-caused climate change, a new study finds. The authors conducted an “impact-oriented” attribution study using data on soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit. They found that in today’s climate, fires of a similar scale can be expected once every 13 years.

• New research published on the 8th of November has found that carbon dioxide emissions from jets have “soared” by 46% over the past four years (2019-2023). This has been driven by a shift in the post-pandemic travel habits of the wealthy, with the most frequent private flyers generating hundreds of times the average person’s total annual emissions. Many of the flights analysed were to high-profile events including UN climate summits. A staggering number of jets studied were used for trips of incredibly short distances; almost half of all flights are shorter than 500km.  Additionally, more than two thirds of private aircrafts are registered to the US. The 8.7 million flights studied over the four years led to emissions of 15.6m tonnes of CO2, or as much as Nepal emits.

• A new report, published on the 11th of November, suggests that extreme weather events cost the world $2tn over the past decade. The study, commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), finds a “gradual upward trend in the cost of extreme weather events between 2014 and 2023, with a spike in 2017” due to an active hurricane season in North America. Climate-related weather events from flash floods washing away homes, to droughts which ruin farmland for year were analysed. The study found economic damages hit $451bn across the past two years alone. The study found that the US “suffered the greatest economic losses over the 10-year period, at $935bn, followed by China at $268bn and India at $112bn. Germany, Australia, France and Brazil all made the top 10”. On a per-capita basis, small islands such as Saint Martin and the Bahamas saw the greatest losses.

• The loss of Arctic sea ice might lead to a new climate system emerging, similar to the periodic weather phenomenon El Niño, new research finds. The authors explain: “A novel type of climate oscillation might emerge in the Arctic Ocean owing to sea-ice melting. The air-sea coupling feedbacks occurring in the ice-free Arctic Ocean would trigger periodic warm-cold temperature oscillations, similar to El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.”

• Eight times more children could face extreme heatwaves by 2050, compared to the 2000s, if “business-as-usual” continues, according to an annual report from Unicef. The report also finds that three times as many children will face river floods and nearly twice as many will face wildfires. The greatest increases in children experiencing extreme heatwaves are expected in east and south Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East, and north, west and central Africa. River floods are expected to affect children in the same areas, as well as east Africa and the Pacific.”

• Low-income regions experienced a 377% increase in the frequency of “compound drought-heatwaves” over 1981-2020, according to a new study using a combination of observations and climate models. According to the study, the rate of increase in low-income regions is twice as fast as the increase observed in high-income regions. It says attribution analysis suggests that climate change has doubled the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves over 31% of low-income regions, compared to only 5% of high-income regions.

• A new study finds that two “climate refugia” in the Great Barrier Reef will remain around 1°C cooler than the surrounding water until at least the 2080s. Models and satellite data show that cooler regions are being created by the upwelling of cooler water to the surface. They use a regional ocean model to assess temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef under a high emission scenario. According to the paper, the two “relatively large refugia” will provide “thermal relief” to corals as the region warms.