UK & EU Climate News

• The High Court has ordered the UK government to publish an updated carbon delivery plan that would meet the requirements of the Fourth and Sixth Carbon Budgets set out by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), after ruling that a previous plan introduced by the Conservatives was unlawful. In May 2024, the High Court deemed the UK government’s climate action plan unlawful, citing an overreliance on ‘risky technologies’ and lack of clarity on how it would meet its Net Zero targets by 2050. The revised plan must outline policies that support achieving the Sixth Carbon Budget through 2037. Recently, the Climate Change Committee provided recommendations for the Seventh Carbon Budget covering the period up to 2042; however, these do not need to be incorporated into the Government’s new plan. 

• The UK’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 4% in 2024, driven by a fall in industrial emissions as the nation’s last coal power plant closed. Electricity supply drove the largest share of the reduction, while last year was a record for renewable energy generation. In 2024, renewables supplied 50.8% of the UK’s electricity, making it the first year renewables have exceeded 50%. Meanwhile, Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 3.4% in 2024, putting the country on track to meet its 2030 climate targets.

• Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party leader has said it is ‘impossible’ for the UK to meet its Net Zero target by 2050 ‘without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us’.  This announcement signals a shift in the goal set by the previous Conservative government. The Conservative leader did not set out an alternative target date, but said she would consider doing so if her party found a better way of delivering net zero. Former prime minister Theresa May has hit back at Badenoch, writing ‘with every additional increment of warming the risks of climate change increase significantly, and at an increasing rate. Delaying action will only harm the next generation and increase both the economic and social costs of climate change’.

• The UK government has announced the planting of 20m trees across 6,000 acres to grow the first new national forest in 30 years between the Cotswolds and the Mendip Hills near Bristol. The forest is expected to capture 2.5m tonnes of CO2 and will help the government meet a legally-binding target of achieving 16.5% woodland cover – up from 10% today – in England by 2050.

• The EU commission has announced that carmakers will have more flexibility in meeting their CO2 emission targets for the next 3 years, but that the 2035 ban on sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles will be kept.  Under the previous rules, new passenger cars and vans producers were required to reduce their CO2 emissions by 15% compared to 2021 levels, however these fines will now only be levied in 2027, allowing companies undershooting the targets in one year to outperform in future years and avoid payments, stretching the window of compliance for the 2025 fleet emissions target to 2027.

• The European Commission has postponed its plan to propose a new 2040 climate target for the EU, which was originally expected in the first quarter of this year. Last month, Brussels announced it would amend the EU’s climate law to set a 2040 target, ensuring progress between the 2030 emissions goal and the Bloc’s net-zero ambition for 2050. However, the proposal has faced political resistance, with some member states and lawmakers hesitant to support the suggested 90% emissions reduction. Like many other countries, the EU also missed the February deadline to submit its 2035 climate plan to the UN— a plan the commission has stated should be based on the 2040 target. While the EU has reaffirmed its commitment to climate action, Euractiv notes that influential voices have opposed the 90% reduction goal.

• Tesla sales across much of Europe have slumped with Tesla sales down in February by 76% in Germany, 42% in Sweden, 48% in Sweden and Norway, 45% in France, 53% in Portugal, 55% in Italy and 24% in the Netherlands. Concerns over far-right comments made by Musk and his power at the heart of the Trump administration have been cited as concerns.

Global Climate News

• The Arctic has ended the winter with the lowest sea ice coverage on record according to scientists. The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre reported that the peak measurement for this year's ice was about 78,000 square km smaller than the previous lowest peak in 2017, with this difference equating to around the size of California. Meanwhile, global average temperatures rose to 1.59C in February 2024, making it the 19th month in the past 20 to be more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels, reports the Guardian.

• A four-lane highway to the city of Belém for this year’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil has resulted in the clearing of eight miles of Amazon rainforest. The road is designed to ease traffic to the city ahead of hosting 50,000 people in November, with the state government citing the highway’s ‘sustainable’ credentials. Meanwhile, the CEO of the COP30 climate summit has warned that the world expects too much from the annual climate sum its, quoting ‘COPs are not silver bullets’.

• Over 150 ‘unprecedented’ climate disasters struck the world in 2024 according to the UN. Scientists point to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reaching its highest point for at least 800,000 years, with 2024 likely the first to surpass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The report found that the past 10 years have been the 10 hottest in nearly 200 years of record-keeping. Furthermore, the past eight years have set a new record for ocean heat content.

Investors risk $2.3tn of stranded fossil fuel assets
 

A new analysis by the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association, reported by Bloomberg, suggests that the transition to a low-carbon economy could render fossil-fuel assets worth $2.3 trillion unusable by the end of the next decade. Oil, gas, and coal reserves—along with related infrastructure and investments—may lose their economic value as investors anticipate demand that ultimately does not materialize, the report indicates. While these losses are substantial, Bloomberg notes that they are far smaller than the economic damage that would result from abandoning global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The UK is highlighted as particularly vulnerable, with stranded assets estimated at $141 billion, according to BusinessGreen. The report also points out that the global risk of stranded fossil-fuel assets has roughly doubled over the past five years, as companies have continued to invest in projects that conflict with international climate targets.

Modelling the effect of trees on energy demand for indoor cooling and dehumidification across cities and climates

A recent study reveals that the effectiveness of urban tree planting in reducing air conditioning energy demand varies depending on a city's humidity levels. Researchers modeled the impact of different levels of tree cover in seven hot cities with varying humidity: Riyadh, Phoenix, Dubai, New Delhi, Singapore, Lagos, and Tokyo. Their findings show that in arid environments like Riyadh and Phoenix, trees lower average summertime air conditioning energy use by 17%. In contrast, in hot and humid cities, the reduction is more modest, ranging between 6% and 9%. The researchers suggest that these insights could help shape urban planning strategies to maximize energy savings through tree planting.

Ongoing row back on environmental and climate policies – US

Donald Trump has signed an executive order to expand logging across 280m acres of national forests and other public lands. This move circumvents the US’s Endangered Species Act but using emergency powers to ignore protections placed on vulnerable creatures’ habitats. This follows similar recent instructions by Trump to push through fossil fuel projects, despite imperiling at-risk species.

In the past month, the US has also pulled out of a flagship global climate financing programme, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) to help developing countries move away from coal. The US has also withdrawn from the board of the UN’s climate damage fund.

Speaking in front of oil and gas executives on 10 March, US energy secretary Chris Wright promised a ‘180 degree pivot’ on climate policy, saying there is a ‘moral case for fossil fuels’ to alleviate poverty and dismissing renewable power stating it ‘played only a small role in the world’s energy mix’. Solar accounted for 84% of new US power in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has terminated $20bn in grants for climate projects awarded through a ‘green bank’ known as the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, originally established under Biden’s flagship Inflation Reduction Act.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has continued to announce a series of actions to roll back environmental regulations, including rules on coal-fired power plant pollution and climate change and electric vehicles.

Trump has also invoked emergency powers to increase the ability of the US to produce critical and rare-earth minerals ‘and potentially coal’. The order also directs the interior department to use federal land for mineral production and encourages faster permitting for mining and processing projects.

Banks’ climate alliance calls vote to ditch pledge on limiting warming to 1.5C

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance, described as the leading global climate coalition for banks, is set to vote on whether to drop its commitment to aligning $54 trillion in assets with the Paris Agreement's 1.5C warming target. The alliance has seen many major US banks leave following Donald Trump's election, though institutions like HSBC and Barclays remain members. The Financial Times reports that a group of European banks, now among the most influential in the alliance, had threatened to withdraw unless the rules were relaxed. Under the proposed changes, instead of adhering strictly to the 1.5C goal, members would have more flexibility to adjust their targets based on the markets in which they operate, Bloomberg notes.

New Research

• A new study suggests that some climate models may overestimate future warming and precipitation in the Arctic. By analysing observational data alongside model simulations, the researchers predict that Arctic temperatures could rise by nearly 1C less and monthly precipitation could be around 1mm lower than previously estimated by the end of the century under a mid-range emissions scenario. The most significant reductions in projected warming and precipitation are found in the Barents-Kara seas. According to the study, these discrepancies arise from an overestimation of past global warming and an excessive representation of sea ice in the models.

• New research published in Nature Sustainability, suggests that rising greenhouse gas emissions could significantly reduce the number of satellites that low Earth orbit can support, potentially cutting its carrying capacity by more than half by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario. Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are known to cool and contract the thermosphere, leading to a long-term decline in atmospheric mass density where most satellites operate. Using modelling, the study examines how satellite carrying capacity could change under various emissions scenarios from 2000 to 2100.